Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stonehill 25.6, Bryant 22.2 at W.B. Mason Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Stonehill wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Bryant has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Stonehill has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bryant by 19 and Stonehill by 26 about 80% of the time.
Stonehill gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stonehill by about 1.3.
Result: Bryant 24, Stonehill 6. Bryant won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bryant / Stonehill) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bryant -4.5 → Bryant -4 | 44.5 → 45.5 | -192 / +153 |
| DraftKings | Bryant -4.5 → Bryant -4 | 44.5 → 45.5 | -192 / +153 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stonehill win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stonehill -3.5 | 47.7 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Bryant -4 | 45.5 | 38% |
| Blended projection | Bryant -3 | 46.8 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stonehill win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 38% · difference +21 pts
- Margin
- model Stonehill -3.4 · market Bryant -4 · difference +7.4 pts (Stonehill view)
- Total
- model 47.7 · market 45.5 · difference +2.2
Model margin is 7.4 pts more toward Stonehill than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bryant 22.2, Stonehill 25.6 | Stonehill 59%wrong winner | 21.4 | 17.7 |
| New formula | Bryant 21.7, Stonehill 30.2 | Stonehill 69%wrong winner | 26.5 | 21.9 |
Final: Bryant 24, Stonehill 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bryant vs Stonehill: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bryant | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 15.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 23.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.35 | 4.57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08 | 5.94 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 117.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.5 | 148.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.2 | 193.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 270.4 | 182.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83 | 0.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25 | 2.33 |
| Stat | Bryant | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.11 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 37.2% | 35.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9% | 42.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0% | 9.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8% | 15.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.51 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.18 | 2.92 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 14 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6 | 58.3 |
| Stat | Bryant | Stonehill |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6% | 36.3% |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 34.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 25.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 26.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8% | 29.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8% | 34.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.0% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.9% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.5% | 48.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bryant schedule · Stonehill schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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