Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bryant 26.8, Hampton 24.8 at Armstrong Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Bryant wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Bryant is 1-1, scoring 13.5 and allowing 32.5 points per game (-19 per game). Hampton is 1-1, scoring 22.5 and allowing 31 points per game (-8.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bryant by 25 and Hampton by 21 about 80% of the time.
Hampton gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Bryant is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Bryant 31, Hampton 3. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26 points and the total by 17.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bryant / Hampton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bryant -3.5 | 48.5 → 51.5 | -166 / +133 |
| DraftKings | Bryant -3.5 | 48.5 → 51.5 | -166 / +133 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Hampton win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Bryant -2 | 51.6 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Bryant -3.5 | 51.5 | 41% |
| Blended projection | Bryant -3.5 | 52.2 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Hampton win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 41% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Bryant -2 · market Bryant -3.5 · difference +1.5 pts (Hampton view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 51.5 · difference +0.1
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Hampton than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bryant 26.8, Hampton 24.8 | Bryant 55%right winner | 26.0 | 17.6 |
| New formula | Bryant 27.0, Hampton 28.5 | Hampton 54%wrong winner | 29.5 | 21.6 |
Final: Bryant 31, Hampton 3. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bryant vs Hampton: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bryant | Hampton |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 17.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 36.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.35 | 5.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08 | 6.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 190.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.5 | 140.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.2 | 246.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 270.4 | 195.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25 | 3.33 |
| Stat | Bryant | Hampton |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 37.2% | 37.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9% | 47.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0% | 10.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 14.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8% | 15.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.51 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.18 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 14 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6 | 62.5 |
| Stat | Bryant | Hampton |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6% | 39.9% |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 36.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 19.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 29.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8% | 37.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8% | 36.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.0% | 47.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.9% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.5% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bryant schedule · Hampton schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.