Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Norfolk State 30.8, Hampton 20.6 at William "Dick" Price Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Norfolk State wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.2 points and 51.4 combined points.
Hampton is 1-2, scoring 16 and allowing 31 points per game (-15 per game). Norfolk State is 1-2, scoring 23 and allowing 30 points per game (-7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Hampton by 12 and Norfolk State by 33 about 80% of the time.
Norfolk State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Norfolk State by about 8.1.
Result: Hampton 21, Norfolk State 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.8 points and the total by 11.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Hampton / Norfolk State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Norfolk State -8.5 → Norfolk State -5.5 | 50.5 → 49.5 | +216 / -279 |
| DraftKings | Norfolk State -8.5 → Norfolk State -5.5 | 50.5 → 49.5 | +216 / -279 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Norfolk State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Norfolk State -10 | 51.4 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Norfolk State -5.5 | 49.5 | 70% |
| Blended projection | Norfolk State -6.5 | 50.4 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Norfolk State win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Norfolk State -10.2 · market Norfolk State -5.5 · difference +4.7 pts (Norfolk State view)
- Total
- model 51.4 · market 49.5 · difference +1.9
Model margin is 4.7 pts more toward Norfolk State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Hampton 20.6, Norfolk State 30.8 | Norfolk State 75%right winner | 10.8 | 11.6 |
| New formula | Hampton 19.4, Norfolk State 34.1 | Norfolk State 83%right winner | 6.3 | 9.4 |
Final: Hampton 21, Norfolk State 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Hampton vs Norfolk State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Hampton | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.9 | 20.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.7 | 35.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 6.40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.63 | 5.80 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.4 | 154.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 140.9 | 224.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 246.3 | 176.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 195.4 | 221.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.58 | 1.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.33 | 2.42 |
| Stat | Hampton | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 37.4% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.0% | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5% | 12.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.6% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.09 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5 | 59.3 |
| Stat | Hampton | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.11 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.9% | 41.8% |
| Passing success rate | 36.5% | 41.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.7% | 20.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.2% | 26.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.2% | 32.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.2% | 29.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.3% | 49.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 49.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 63.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hampton schedule · Norfolk State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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