Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Delaware State 29.1, Towson 26.7 at Alumni Stadium (DE) in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Delaware State wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 55.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Towson is 0-4, scoring 17 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-20.3 per game). Delaware State is 2-2, scoring 23.5 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Towson by 20 and Delaware State by 25 about 80% of the time.
Delaware State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Delaware State by about 0.3.
Result: Towson 28, Delaware State 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.6 points and the total by 5.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Towson / Delaware State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Delaware State -3.5 → Delaware State -3 | 50.5 → 48.5 | +102 / -127 |
| DraftKings | Delaware State -3.5 → Delaware State -3 | 50.5 → 48.5 | +102 / -127 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Delaware State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Delaware State -2.5 | 55.7 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Delaware State -3 | 48.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Delaware State -3 | 49.8 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Delaware State win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Delaware State -2.4 · market Delaware State -3 · difference -0.6 pts (Delaware State view)
- Total
- model 55.7 · market 48.5 · difference +7.2
Model margin is 0.6 pts more toward Towson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Towson 26.7, Delaware State 29.1 | Delaware State 56%right winner | 2.6 | 5.3 |
| New formula | Towson 25.0, Delaware State 29.7 | Delaware State 62%right winner | 0.2 | 6.3 |
Final: Towson 28, Delaware State 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Towson vs Delaware State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Towson | Delaware State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.8 | 32.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.1 | 24.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.01 | 7.06 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67 | 6.48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.7 | 306.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.5 | 163.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.2 | 151.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.1 | 293.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 1.67 |
| Stat | Towson | Delaware State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 41.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 15.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 14.8% |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.7% | 15.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.94 | 3.32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05 | 3.75 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Towson | Delaware State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.22 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3% | 43.6% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 39.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 23.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 32.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.5% | 33.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1% | 34.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 38.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 37.4% | 49.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1% | 61.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Towson schedule · Delaware State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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