Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Campbell 34.2, Towson 26.1 at Barker-Lane Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Campbell wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 60.2 combined points.
Towson is 0-7, scoring 22.9 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-13.4 per game). Campbell is 5-1, scoring 34 and allowing 28.8 points per game (+5.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Towson by 14 and Campbell by 31 about 80% of the time.
Campbell gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Campbell by about 6.
Result: Towson 20, Campbell 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.1 points and the total by 16.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Towson / Campbell) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Campbell -12.5 → Campbell -11.5 | 62.5 → 56.5 | +353 / -496 |
| DraftKings | Campbell -12.5 → Campbell -11.5 | 62.5 → 56.5 | +353 / -496 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Campbell win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Campbell -8 | 60.2 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Campbell -11.5 | 56.5 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Campbell -11 | 57.0 | 77% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Campbell win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Campbell -8.1 · market Campbell -11.5 · difference -3.4 pts (Campbell view)
- Total
- model 60.2 · market 56.5 · difference +3.7
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward Towson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Towson 26.1, Campbell 34.2 | Campbell 70%right winner | 4.1 | 16.2 |
| New formula | Towson 24.6, Campbell 34.5 | Campbell 74%right winner | 5.9 | 15.1 |
Final: Towson 20, Campbell 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Towson vs Campbell: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Towson | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.8 | 24.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.1 | 35.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.01 | 5.29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67 | 6.47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.7 | 148.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.5 | 211.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.2 | 138.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.1 | 272.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 1.92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Towson | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 40.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 43.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.1% | 9.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% | 14.2% |
| Havoc rate | 8.9% | 9.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 9.7% | 12.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.94 | 3.54 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05 | 4.67 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9 | 68.0 |
| Stat | Towson | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3% | 43.1% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 41.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9% | 21.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 29.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.5% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.1% | 39.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 43.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 37.4% | 59.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1% | 73.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Towson schedule · Campbell schedule · all Week 7 projections
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