Matchup analysis
Our model projects Sacred Heart 27, Towson 25 at Campus Field in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Sacred Heart wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 51.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Towson is 0-8 against the 37th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.5 and allowing 34.8 points per game (-12.3 per game). Sacred Heart is 3-4 against the 149th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 24.3 points per game (-4.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Towson by 21 and Sacred Heart by 24 about 80% of the time.
Sacred Heart gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Towson would be favoured by 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Towson vs Sacred Heart: stat comparison
| Stat | Towson | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 20.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.8 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.65 | 5.27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 5.98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.0 | 177.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.3 | 178.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.4 | 150.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.0 | 173.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 0.29 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 0.14 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.63 | 1.86 |
| Stat | Towson | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 42.2% | 42.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% | 42.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 9.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 9.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 12.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.01 | 3.46 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.53 | 3.63 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 16 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.1 | 67.4 |
| Stat | Towson | Sacred Heart |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.22 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.5% | 40.4% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 45.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.1% | 32.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 34.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 43.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.3% | 36.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.5% | 55.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.8% | 59.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Towson schedule · Sacred Heart schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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