Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgetown 26.4, Columbia 24.3 at Cooper Field in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Georgetown wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 50.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Columbia is 1-0, scoring 40 and allowing 34 points per game (+6 per game). Georgetown is 0-2, scoring 17.5 and allowing 34.5 points per game (-17 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Columbia by 20 and Georgetown by 25 about 80% of the time.
Georgetown gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Columbia would be dead even. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Columbia 20, Georgetown 17. Columbia won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 5.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Columbia / Georgetown) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Columbia -7 | 51.5 → 46.5 | -259 / +201 |
| DraftKings | Columbia -7 | 51.5 → 46.5 | -259 / +201 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgetown win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgetown -2 | 50.7 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Columbia -7 | 46.5 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Columbia -5.5 | 47.8 | 35% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgetown win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference +24 pts
- Margin
- model Georgetown -2.1 · market Columbia -7 · difference +9.1 pts (Georgetown view)
- Total
- model 50.7 · market 46.5 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 9.1 pts more toward Georgetown than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Columbia 24.3, Georgetown 26.4 | Georgetown 55%wrong winner | 5.1 | 13.7 |
| New formula | Columbia 25.2, Georgetown 26.1 | Georgetown 52%wrong winner | 3.9 | 14.3 |
Final: Columbia 20, Georgetown 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Columbia vs Georgetown: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Columbia | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.6 | 21.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.9 | 26.7 |
| Yards per play | 4.88 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.79 | 5.73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.9 | 179.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.6 | 182.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.0 | 176.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.1 | 218.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.20 | 2.17 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.40 | 3.50 |
| Stat | Columbia | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.10 |
| Success rate | 37.8% | 34.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3% | 42.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.8% | 10.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.02 | 2.87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9 | 70.9 |
| Stat | Columbia | Georgetown |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.7% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 33.6% | 35.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6% | 23.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.3% | 26.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 31.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.9% | 41.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2% | 38.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.8% | 45.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 51.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Columbia schedule · Georgetown schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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