Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Pennsylvania 27.1, Columbia 19.9 at Franklin Field in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Pennsylvania wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.2 points and 47 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Columbia is 3-1, scoring 27 and allowing 28.5 points per game (-1.5 per game). Pennsylvania is 2-2, scoring 15.3 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+0 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Columbia by 15 and Pennsylvania by 30 about 80% of the time.
Pennsylvania gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Pennsylvania by about 5.1. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Columbia 28, Pennsylvania 27. Columbia won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 8.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Columbia / Pennsylvania) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Pennsylvania -6.5 | 46.5 | +187 / -239 |
| DraftKings | Pennsylvania -6.5 | 46.5 | +187 / -239 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Pennsylvania win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pennsylvania -7 | 47.0 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Pennsylvania -6.5 | 46.5 | 67% |
| Blended projection | Pennsylvania -6.5 | 47.6 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Pennsylvania win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Pennsylvania -7.2 · market Pennsylvania -6.5 · difference +0.7 pts (Pennsylvania view)
- Total
- model 47.0 · market 46.5 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Pennsylvania than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Columbia 19.9, Pennsylvania 27.1 | Pennsylvania 68%wrong winner | 8.2 | 8.0 |
| New formula | Columbia 20.3, Pennsylvania 27.3 | Pennsylvania 68%wrong winner | 8.0 | 7.3 |
Final: Columbia 28, Pennsylvania 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Columbia vs Pennsylvania: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Columbia | Pennsylvania |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.6 | 27.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.9 | 26.5 |
| Yards per play | 4.88 | 5.93 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.79 | 5.64 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.9 | 146.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.6 | 237.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.0 | 143.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.1 | 229.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| Sacks per game | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Columbia | Pennsylvania |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 37.8% | 46.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3% | 43.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% | 13.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 11.5% |
| Havoc rate | 13.8% | 12.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 12.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.02 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.02 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9 | 64.7 |
| Stat | Columbia | Pennsylvania |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.7% | 47.3% |
| Passing success rate | 33.6% | 47.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.3% | 37.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 32.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.9% | 52.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.2% | 49.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.8% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 46.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Columbia schedule · Pennsylvania schedule · all Week 7 projections
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