Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dartmouth 24.8, Columbia 24.5 at Lawrence A. Wien Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Dartmouth wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 49.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Dartmouth is 2-3, scoring 19.2 and allowing 22.8 points per game (-3.6 per game). Columbia is 4-1, scoring 27.2 and allowing 28.2 points per game (-1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dartmouth by 23 and Columbia by 22 about 80% of the time.
Columbia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Dartmouth is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Dartmouth 38, Columbia 18. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.7 points and the total by 6.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Dartmouth 24.8, Columbia 24.5 | Dartmouth 51%right winner | 19.7 | 6.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Dartmouth 38, Columbia 18. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Dartmouth vs Columbia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Dartmouth | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.4 | 15.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 27.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.09 | 4.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42 | 5.79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.7 | 124.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.3 | 191.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 115.2 | 167.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.5 | 205.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.90 | 2.40 |
| Stat | Dartmouth | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 45.7% | 37.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 44.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7% | 11.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 13.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.0% | 14.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.02 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.02 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.1 | 64.9 |
| Stat | Dartmouth | Columbia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.2% | 42.7% |
| Passing success rate | 46.3% | 33.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 19.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.0% | 22.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7% | 33.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.0% | 39.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.2% | 45.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 50.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.8% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Dartmouth schedule · Columbia schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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