Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected American International 31.9, Central Connecticut 28.4 at Arute Field in Week 6. That is a lean: American International wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 60.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
American International has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Central Connecticut is 1-3, scoring 26.3 and allowing 42.8 points per game (-16.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between American International by 26 and Central Connecticut by 19 about 80% of the time.
Central Connecticut gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. American International is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: American International 14, Central Connecticut 51. Central Connecticut won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 40.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | American International 31.9, Central Connecticut 28.4 | American International 59%wrong winner | 40.5 | 4.7 |
| New formula | American International 20.4, Central Connecticut 36.8 | Central Connecticut 83%right winner | 20.6 | 7.8 |
Final: American International 14, Central Connecticut 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
American International vs Central Connecticut: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | American International | Central Connecticut |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 7.0 | 26.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0 | 22.9 |
| Yards per play | 3.63 | 5.64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.56 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.0 | 140.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 75.0 | 241.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.0 | 156.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 224.0 | 226.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00 | 1.23 |
| Stat | American International | Central Connecticut |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 36.7% | 41.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 42.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 11.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 14.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.20 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.0 | 67.7 |
| Stat | American International | Central Connecticut |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 14.8% | 38.5% |
| Passing success rate | 33.3% | 45.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.8% | 30.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.7% | 30.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.6% | 40.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 22.2% | 40.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 49.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 63.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: American International schedule · Central Connecticut schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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