Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Robert Morris 26.3, Norfolk State 24.8 at Joe Walton Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Robert Morris wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 51.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Norfolk State is 3-2, scoring 30.8 and allowing 26.2 points per game (+4.6 per game). Robert Morris is 2-2, scoring 23.8 and allowing 23 points per game (+0.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Norfolk State by 21 and Robert Morris by 24 about 80% of the time.
Robert Morris gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Norfolk State would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Norfolk State 31, Robert Morris 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.5 points and the total by 12.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Norfolk State / Robert Morris) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Robert Morris -3.5 → Robert Morris -1.5 | 43.5 → 44.5 | +100 / -125 |
| DraftKings | Robert Morris -3.5 → Robert Morris -1.5 | 43.5 → 44.5 | +100 / -125 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Robert Morris win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Robert Morris -1.5 | 51.1 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Robert Morris -1.5 | 44.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Robert Morris -1.5 | 46.1 | 54% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Robert Morris win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Robert Morris -1.5 · market Robert Morris -1.5 · difference 0.0 pts (Robert Morris view)
- Total
- model 51.1 · market 44.5 · difference +6.6
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Norfolk State 24.8, Robert Morris 26.3 | Robert Morris 54%right winner | 0.5 | 12.9 |
| New formula | Norfolk State 25.0, Robert Morris 25.9 | Robert Morris 53%right winner | 1.1 | 13.1 |
Final: Norfolk State 31, Robert Morris 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Norfolk State vs Robert Morris: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Norfolk State | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.9 | 15.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.6 | 24.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.40 | 5.05 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.80 | 5.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.3 | 123.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.9 | 161.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.3 | 203.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.3 | 164.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 1.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.42 | 1.55 |
| Stat | Norfolk State | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 35.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 43.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.26 | 3.63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09 | 3.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.3 | 56.5 |
| Stat | Norfolk State | Robert Morris |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8% | 36.6% |
| Passing success rate | 41.7% | 33.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 21.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.2% | 29.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.9% | 31.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.1% | 37.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.4% | 49.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.7% | 61.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Norfolk State schedule · Robert Morris schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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