Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina State 35.9, Florida A&M 24.9 on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: South Carolina State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11 points and 60.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
South Carolina State is 1-0, scoring 87 and allowing 0 points per game (+87 per game). Florida A&M is 1-0, scoring 20 and allowing 7 points per game (+13 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina State by 34 and Florida A&M by 12 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: South Carolina State 31, Florida A&M 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7 points and the total by 16.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Carolina State / Florida A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina State -17.5 → South Carolina State -19.5 | 52.5 | -1420 / +740 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina State -17.5 → South Carolina State -19.5 | 52.5 | -1420 / +740 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina State -11 | 60.7 | 24% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina State -19.5 | 52.5 | 11% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina State -18 | 53.6 | 11% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida A&M win probability
- model 24% · market (no-vig) 11% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model South Carolina State -11 · market South Carolina State -19.5 · difference +8.5 pts (Florida A&M view)
- Total
- model 60.7 · market 52.5 · difference +8.2
Model margin is 8.5 pts more toward Florida A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Carolina State 35.9, Florida A&M 24.9 | South Carolina State 76%right winner | 7.0 | 16.7 |
| New formula | South Carolina State 39.7, Florida A&M 19.0 | South Carolina State 90%right winner | 2.8 | 14.7 |
Final: South Carolina State 31, Florida A&M 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Carolina State vs Florida A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Carolina State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.2 | 33.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.91 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.79 | 6.51 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.5 | 151.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.6 | 202.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.1 | 194.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.8 | 240.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31 | 0.30 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 1.10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.77 | 2.20 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 43.3% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 47.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 14.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 11.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 16.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 3.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.43 | 4.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.3 | 63.6 |
| Stat | South Carolina State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.27 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3% | 40.8% |
| Passing success rate | 43.3% | 38.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.1% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.5% | 38.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.0% | 38.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 53.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.7% | 48.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.8% | 73.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina State schedule · Florida A&M schedule · all Week 1 projections
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