Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Delaware State 28.4, Franklin Pierce 25.3 at Alumni Stadium (DE) in Week 6. That is a lean: Delaware State wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Franklin Pierce is 0-1, scoring 18 and allowing 27 points per game (-9 per game). Delaware State is 3-3, scoring 21.7 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-7.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Franklin Pierce by 19 and Delaware State by 26 about 80% of the time.
Delaware State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Delaware State by about 1.
Result: Franklin Pierce 0, Delaware State 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 30.9 points and the total by 19.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Franklin Pierce 25.3, Delaware State 28.4 | Delaware State 58%right winner | 30.9 | 19.7 |
| New formula | Franklin Pierce 26.3, Delaware State 27.7 | Delaware State 53%right winner | 32.6 | 19.9 |
Final: Franklin Pierce 0, Delaware State 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Franklin Pierce schedule · Delaware State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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