Matchup analysis
Our model projects Norfolk State 28, Howard 23 at William "Dick" Price Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Norfolk State wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 51.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Howard is 4-4 against the 47th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.4 and allowing 29.9 points per game (-9.5 per game). Norfolk State is 4-4 against the 153rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.8 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+8.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Howard by 17 and Norfolk State by 28 about 80% of the time.
Norfolk State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Norfolk State by about 3.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Howard vs Norfolk State: stat comparison
| Stat | Howard | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.4 | 31.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9 | 23.3 |
| Yards per play | 4.66 | 6.12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.00 | 5.44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 141.6 | 204.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 148.6 | 208.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.4 | 116.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.4 | 209.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.50 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Howard | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 36.9% | 41.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0% | 42.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.19 | 3.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.63 | 4.26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 18 | opp 18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 14 | opp 15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3 | 67.4 |
| Stat | Howard | Norfolk State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 41.6% |
| Passing success rate | 31.2% | 41.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9% | 19.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.5% | 35.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7% | 35.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.1% | 38.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6% | 39.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 50.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 67.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Howard schedule · Norfolk State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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