Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina State 35.2, Savannah State 23.4 at Oliver C. Dawson Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: South Carolina State wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.8 points and 58.5 combined points.
Savannah State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. South Carolina State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Savannah State by 11 and South Carolina State by 34 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Carolina State by about 9.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Savannah State 0, South Carolina State 87. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 75.2 points and the total by 28.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Savannah State 23.4, South Carolina State 35.2 | South Carolina State 78%right winner | 75.2 | 28.5 |
| New formula | Savannah State 15.0, South Carolina State 43.1 | South Carolina State 95%right winner | 58.9 | 28.9 |
Final: Savannah State 0, South Carolina State 87. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Savannah State vs South Carolina State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Savannah State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 6.0 | 32.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 49.0 | 27.2 |
| Yards per play | 4.39 | 5.91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.37 | 5.79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 56.0 | 147.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 247.0 | 273.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 62.0 | 153.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 352.0 | 212.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 | 1.31 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 2.77 |
| Stat | Savannah State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| Success rate | 36.3% | 43.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.2% | 38.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 14.4% | 15.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2% | 13.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.68 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.56 | 3.43 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0 | 71.3 |
| Stat | Savannah State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.22 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 11.1% | 44.3% |
| Passing success rate | 25.7% | 43.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.3% | 20.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 34.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 27.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 23.5% | 48.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.7% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.5% | 58.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.0% | 46.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Savannah State schedule · South Carolina State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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