Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina State 35.9, Virginia State 21.2 at Oliver C. Dawson Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: South Carolina State wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.7 points and 57 combined points.
Virginia State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. South Carolina State is 2-0, scoring 59 and allowing 6.5 points per game (+52.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Virginia State by 8 and South Carolina State by 37 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Carolina State by about 12.6.
Result: Virginia State 0, South Carolina State 66. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 51.3 points and the total by 9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Virginia State 21.2, South Carolina State 35.9 | South Carolina State 83%right winner | 51.3 | 9.0 |
| New formula | Virginia State 16.1, South Carolina State 45.9 | South Carolina State 96%right winner | 36.3 | 4.0 |
Final: Virginia State 0, South Carolina State 66. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Virginia State vs South Carolina State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Virginia State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0 | 32.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0 | 27.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 5.91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34 | 5.79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 131.0 | 147.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.0 | 273.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 211.0 | 153.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 220.0 | 212.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.77 |
| Stat | Virginia State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | -0.05 |
| Success rate | 38.7% | 43.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5% | 38.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% | 11.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 13.1% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 15.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 13.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.43 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0 | 71.3 |
| Stat | Virginia State | South Carolina State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.0% | 44.3% |
| Passing success rate | 33.3% | 43.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.0% | 20.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4% | 34.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9% | 27.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 23.1% | 48.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.8% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 58.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 46.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Virginia State schedule · South Carolina State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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