Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bucknell 22.9, Pennsylvania 19.3 at Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Bucknell wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.6 points and 42.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Pennsylvania has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Bucknell is 1-2, scoring 14.7 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Pennsylvania by 19 and Bucknell by 26 about 80% of the time.
Bucknell gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bucknell by about 1.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Pennsylvania 20, Bucknell 7. Pennsylvania won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Pennsylvania / Bucknell) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Pennsylvania -3 → Pennsylvania -3.5 | 48.5 → 46.5 | -195 / +155 |
| DraftKings | Pennsylvania -3 → Pennsylvania -3.5 | 48.5 → 46.5 | -195 / +155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bucknell win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Bucknell -3.5 | 42.2 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Pennsylvania -3.5 | 46.5 | 37% |
| Blended projection | Pennsylvania -2.5 | 47.3 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bucknell win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 37% · difference +22 pts
- Margin
- model Bucknell -3.6 · market Pennsylvania -3.5 · difference +7.1 pts (Bucknell view)
- Total
- model 42.2 · market 46.5 · difference -4.3
Model margin is 7.1 pts more toward Bucknell than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Pennsylvania 19.3, Bucknell 22.9 | Bucknell 59%wrong winner | 16.6 | 15.2 |
| New formula | Pennsylvania 27.9, Bucknell 26.6 | Pennsylvania 53%right winner | 11.7 | 27.5 |
Final: Pennsylvania 20, Bucknell 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Pennsylvania vs Bucknell: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Pennsylvania | Bucknell |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.1 | 26.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.5 | 34.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.93 | 5.53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64 | 6.58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.3 | 136.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.1 | 206.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.2 | 203.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 229.8 | 228.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.90 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.30 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 3.42 |
| Stat | Pennsylvania | Bucknell |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | -0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.15 |
| Success rate | 46.2% | 39.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 49.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5% | 15.9% |
| Havoc rate | 12.3% | 10.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5% | 16.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.02 | 4.10 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7 | 62.2 |
| Stat | Pennsylvania | Bucknell |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.21 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3% | 38.6% |
| Passing success rate | 47.6% | 41.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 21.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.1% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8% | 34.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.8% | 42.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.6% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 51.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.8% | 67.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Pennsylvania schedule · Bucknell schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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