Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Charleston Southern 25.8, Point University 19.7 at Buccaneer Field in Week 3. That is a lean: Charleston Southern wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Point University has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Charleston Southern is 1-2, scoring 14.3 and allowing 23.7 points per game (-9.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Point University by 16 and Charleston Southern by 29 about 80% of the time.
Charleston Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Charleston Southern by about 4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Point University 0, Charleston Southern 65. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 58.9 points and the total by 19.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Point University 19.7, Charleston Southern 25.8 | Charleston Southern 66%right winner | 58.9 | 19.5 |
| New formula | Point University 17.3, Charleston Southern 29.5 | Charleston Southern 76%right winner | 52.8 | 18.3 |
Final: Point University 0, Charleston Southern 65. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Point University schedule · Charleston Southern schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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