Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Marist 27, Franklin Pierce 23.5 at Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field in Week 1. That is a lean: Marist wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Franklin Pierce has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Marist is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 22 points per game (-1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Franklin Pierce by 19 and Marist by 26 about 80% of the time.
Marist gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Marist by about 1.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Franklin Pierce 18, Marist 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.5 points and the total by 5.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Franklin Pierce 23.5, Marist 27.0 | Marist 59%right winner | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| New formula | Franklin Pierce 21.2, Marist 29.7 | Marist 69%right winner | 0.5 | 6.0 |
Final: Franklin Pierce 18, Marist 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Franklin Pierce schedule · Marist schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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