Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama A&M 28.5, Bowie State 20.5 at Louis Crews Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Alabama A&M wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8 points and 49 combined points.
Bowie State is 0-1, scoring 6 and allowing 21 points per game (-15 per game). Alabama A&M is 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 19 points per game (+11.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bowie State by 15 and Alabama A&M by 31 about 80% of the time.
Alabama A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama A&M by about 5.9.
Result: Bowie State 3, Alabama A&M 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 34 points and the total by 1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bowie State 20.5, Alabama A&M 28.5 | Alabama A&M 70%right winner | 34.0 | 1.0 |
| New formula | Bowie State 23.0, Alabama A&M 30.2 | Alabama A&M 67%right winner | 34.8 | 5.2 |
Final: Bowie State 3, Alabama A&M 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bowie State vs Alabama A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bowie State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.0 | 23.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.0 | 33.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.81 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.96 | 6.65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 201.0 | 125.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.0 | 222.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 275.0 | 201.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.0 | 221.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 1.36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 2.27 |
| Stat | Bowie State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 39.4% | 38.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.2% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 15.6% |
| Havoc rate | 9.3% | 11.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.47 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.0 | 64.7 |
| Stat | Bowie State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.17 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | 0.00 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.3% | 42.6% |
| Passing success rate | 25.8% | 40.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.5% | 20.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.5% | 27.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7% | 32.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5% | 36.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 20.0% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 56.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 68.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bowie State schedule · Alabama A&M schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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