Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama A&M 30.8, Florida A&M 25.2 at Bragg Memorial Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Alabama A&M wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 56 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Alabama A&M is 3-1, scoring 34.3 and allowing 15 points per game (+19.3 per game). Florida A&M is 1-3, scoring 16.5 and allowing 36 points per game (-19.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama A&M by 28 and Florida A&M by 17 about 80% of the time.
Florida A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama A&M is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Alabama A&M 40, Florida A&M 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.4 points and the total by 5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama A&M / Florida A&M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida A&M -1.5 → Alabama A&M -3 | 49.5 → 51.5 | -134 / +108 |
| DraftKings | Florida A&M -1.5 → Alabama A&M -3 | 49.5 → 51.5 | -134 / +108 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida A&M win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama A&M -5.5 | 56.0 | 36% |
| Market consensus | Alabama A&M -3 | 51.5 | 46% |
| Blended projection | Alabama A&M -3.5 | 52.4 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida A&M win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 46% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama A&M -5.6 · market Alabama A&M -3 · difference -2.6 pts (Florida A&M view)
- Total
- model 56.0 · market 51.5 · difference +4.5
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Alabama A&M than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama A&M 30.8, Florida A&M 25.2 | Alabama A&M 64%right winner | 13.4 | 5.0 |
| New formula | Alabama A&M 30.6, Florida A&M 24.7 | Alabama A&M 65%right winner | 13.1 | 5.7 |
Final: Alabama A&M 40, Florida A&M 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama A&M vs Florida A&M: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.4 | 33.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.65 | 6.51 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.5 | 151.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 222.9 | 202.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.5 | 194.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.6 | 240.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 0.70 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 0.30 |
| Sacks per game | 1.36 | 1.10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.27 | 2.20 |
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 38.4% | 38.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 47.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 14.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.3% | 11.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.09 | 3.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.47 | 4.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7 | 63.6 |
| Stat | Alabama A&M | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.27 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6% | 40.8% |
| Passing success rate | 40.0% | 38.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2% | 21.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.8% | 27.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.3% | 38.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.6% | 38.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 53.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.1% | 48.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.3% | 73.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama A&M schedule · Florida A&M schedule · all Week 4 projections
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