Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alcorn State 35, Florida A&M 27 at Spinks-Casem Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Alcorn State wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.4 points and 61.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Florida A&M is 2-6 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20 and allowing 33.6 points per game (-13.6 per game). Alcorn State is 4-4 against the 164th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.9 and allowing 37 points per game (+4.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida A&M by 14 and Alcorn State by 31 about 80% of the time.
Alcorn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alcorn State by about 6.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Florida A&M vs Alcorn State: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida A&M | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0 | 41.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.6 | 37.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.82 | 6.84 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.62 | 6.33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 107.6 | 180.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 209.5 | 316.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 241.8 | 201.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.3 | 219.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 33.9% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1% | 44.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 14.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.5% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.44 | 3.38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.31 | 4.71 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.5 | 72.5 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.20 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.18 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.3% | 48.0% |
| Passing success rate | 33.1% | 44.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.7% | 20.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0% | 34.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.0% | 36.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 26.5% | 47.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5% | 39.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 6.8% | 45.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20.3% | 68.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida A&M schedule · Alcorn State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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