Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee Tech 39.2, Western Carolina 28.9 at E.J. Whitmire Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Tennessee Tech wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.2 points and 68.1 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Tennessee Tech is 4-0, scoring 37.3 and allowing 20 points per game (+17.3 per game). Western Carolina is 2-3, scoring 32.6 and allowing 36.6 points per game (-4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee Tech by 33 and Western Carolina by 12 about 80% of the time.
Western Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tennessee Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tennessee Tech 20, Western Carolina 44. Western Carolina won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 34.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tennessee Tech / Western Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee Tech -9.5 → Tennessee Tech -13.5 | 63.5 | -445 / +323 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee Tech -9.5 → Tennessee Tech -13.5 | 63.5 | -445 / +323 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee Tech -10 | 68.1 | 25% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee Tech -13.5 | 63.5 | 22% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee Tech -13 | 63.5 | 19% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Carolina win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 22% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee Tech -10.2 · market Tennessee Tech -13.5 · difference +3.3 pts (Western Carolina view)
- Total
- model 68.1 · market 63.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 3.3 pts more toward Western Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tennessee Tech 39.2, Western Carolina 28.9 | Tennessee Tech 75%wrong winner | 34.2 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Tennessee Tech 37.6, Western Carolina 28.3 | Tennessee Tech 73%wrong winner | 33.2 | 1.9 |
Final: Tennessee Tech 20, Western Carolina 44. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tennessee Tech vs Western Carolina: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.5 | 38.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.7 | 33.5 |
| Yards per play | 6.79 | 6.40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.71 | 6.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.7 | 154.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.3 | 326.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.3 | 207.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.3 | 279.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.55 |
| Sacks per game | 3.42 | 1.91 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 2.27 |
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 43.5% | 45.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 40.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 13.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 13.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.85 | 3.57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.14 | 2.67 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.2 | 75.1 |
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | Western Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.03 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.9% | 43.8% |
| Passing success rate | 45.5% | 47.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 31.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 35.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.1% | 46.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.8% | 39.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.2% | 55.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9% | 35.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee Tech schedule · Western Carolina schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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