Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bethune-Cookman 29, Florida A&M 25 on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Bethune-Cookman wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 53.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Florida A&M is 2-6 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20 and allowing 33.6 points per game (-13.6 per game). Bethune-Cookman is 5-3 against the 125th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-0.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida A&M by 19 and Bethune-Cookman by 26 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Florida A&M vs Bethune-Cookman: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida A&M | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0 | 27.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.6 | 28.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.82 | 5.23 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.62 | 6.27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 107.6 | 234.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 209.5 | 105.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 241.8 | 206.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.3 | 170.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88 | 2.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 1.88 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 33.9% | 39.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1% | 41.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 12.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 17.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.5% | 15.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.44 | 4.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.31 | 3.87 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.5 | 65.0 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | -0.20 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.3% | 41.7% |
| Passing success rate | 33.1% | 31.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.7% | 21.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0% | 26.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.0% | 30.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 26.5% | 36.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5% | 35.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 6.8% | 65.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 20.3% | 58.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida A&M schedule · Bethune-Cookman schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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