Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jackson State 37.9, Florida A&M 18.6 at Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Jackson State wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.3 points and 56.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Florida A&M is 2-4, scoring 19.2 and allowing 35.2 points per game (-16 per game). Jackson State is 5-1, scoring 39.5 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+17 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida A&M by 3 and Jackson State by 42 about 80% of the time.
Jackson State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jackson State by about 17.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Florida A&M 17, Jackson State 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.3 points and the total by 12.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida A&M / Jackson State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Jackson State -13.5 → Jackson State -15.5 | 54.5 | +462 / -700 |
| DraftKings | Jackson State -13.5 → Jackson State -15.5 | 54.5 | +462 / -700 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Jackson State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Jackson State -19.5 | 56.5 | 90% |
| Market consensus | Jackson State -15.5 | 54.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Jackson State -16 | 55.1 | 87% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Jackson State win probability
- model 90% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Jackson State -19.3 · market Jackson State -15.5 · difference +3.8 pts (Jackson State view)
- Total
- model 56.5 · market 54.5 · difference +2.0
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Jackson State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida A&M 18.6, Jackson State 37.9 | Jackson State 90%right winner | 9.3 | 12.5 |
| New formula | Florida A&M 17.9, Jackson State 38.1 | Jackson State 91%right winner | 10.2 | 12.0 |
Final: Florida A&M 17, Jackson State 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida A&M vs Jackson State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Florida A&M | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3 | 32.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.8 | 18.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.56 | 7.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.51 | 5.89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.9 | 260.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.0 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 194.9 | 129.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.1 | 223.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.30 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.10 | 1.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20 | 1.08 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 38.3% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.3% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24 | 3.71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.64 | 2.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.6 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Florida A&M | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.27 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8% | 50.8% |
| Passing success rate | 38.6% | 43.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.3% | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.6% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 50.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.1% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.8% | 63.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.1% | 64.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida A&M schedule · Jackson State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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