Matchup analysis
Our model projects Florida A&M 33, Mississippi Valley State 20 at Bragg Memorial Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Florida A&M wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.4 points and 53.3 combined points.
Mississippi Valley State is 3-5 against the 156th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.8 and allowing 34.1 points per game (-16.3 per game). Florida A&M is 2-6 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20 and allowing 33.6 points per game (-13.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mississippi Valley State by 9 and Florida A&M by 36 about 80% of the time.
Florida A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida A&M by about 11.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Mississippi Valley State vs Florida A&M: stat comparison
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.8 | 20.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.1 | 33.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.02 | 5.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.35 | 6.62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.8 | 107.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 147.3 | 209.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.0 | 241.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.0 | 214.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.88 | 2.75 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 33.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6% | 45.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 12.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 15.0% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.8% | 18.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.66 | 0.44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.59 | 1.31 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.4 | 54.5 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Florida A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.02 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.8% | 34.3% |
| Passing success rate | 28.0% | 33.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.4% | 26.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 25.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.1% | 33.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.1% | 26.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 38.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 6.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.3% | 20.3% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi Valley State schedule · Florida A&M schedule · all Week 11 projections
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