Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jackson State 32.1, Edward Waters 20.6 at Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Jackson State wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.5 points and 52.6 combined points.
Edward Waters has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Jackson State is 1-0, scoring 26 and allowing 24 points per game (+2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Edward Waters by 11 and Jackson State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Jackson State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jackson State by about 9.4. The game is on HBCU Go.
Result: Edward Waters 14, Jackson State 66. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 40.5 points and the total by 27.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Edward Waters 20.6, Jackson State 32.1 | Jackson State 77%right winner | 40.5 | 27.4 |
| New formula | Edward Waters 13.1, Jackson State 38.9 | Jackson State 93%right winner | 26.2 | 27.9 |
Final: Edward Waters 14, Jackson State 66. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Edward Waters vs Jackson State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Edward Waters | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 9.0 | 32.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.0 | 18.8 |
| Yards per play | 4.21 | 7.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.42 | 5.89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 123.0 | 260.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.0 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 230.0 | 129.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0 | 223.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 1.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00 | 1.08 |
| Stat | Edward Waters | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 36.0% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.7% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.7% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.0% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 2.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.0 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Edward Waters | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 26.7% | 50.8% |
| Passing success rate | 27.3% | 43.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.5% | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.5% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3% | 50.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 63.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 64.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Edward Waters schedule · Jackson State schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.