Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Jackson State 32, Tuskegee 23.9 at Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Jackson State wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 55.9 combined points.
Tuskegee has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Jackson State is 2-0, scoring 46 and allowing 19 points per game (+27 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tuskegee by 14 and Jackson State by 31 about 80% of the time.
Jackson State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jackson State by about 6.
Result: Tuskegee 7, Jackson State 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 25.9 points and the total by 7.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tuskegee 23.9, Jackson State 32.0 | Jackson State 70%right winner | 25.9 | 7.9 |
| New formula | Tuskegee 13.8, Jackson State 43.9 | Jackson State 96%right winner | 3.9 | 9.7 |
Final: Tuskegee 7, Jackson State 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tuskegee vs Jackson State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tuskegee | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 10.5 | 32.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 18.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.92 | 7.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.27 | 5.89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 102.5 | 260.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 193.5 | 211.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.5 | 129.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 358.0 | 223.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.08 |
| Stat | Tuskegee | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.59 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 59.6% | 41.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7% | 13.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 19.5% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 9.4% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.7% | 11.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.05 | 3.71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.06 | 2.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 50.0 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Tuskegee | Jackson State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.25 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.40 | +0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.36 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.88 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 50.8% |
| Passing success rate | 31.7% | 43.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6% | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 31.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 56.2% | 30.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4% | 50.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 57.1% | 35.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 63.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 64.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tuskegee schedule · Jackson State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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