Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Lincoln (PA) 29.5, Mississippi Valley State 22.5 on a neutral field at Soldier Field in Week 2. That is a lean: Lincoln (PA) wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7 points and 52 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Lincoln (PA) has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Mississippi Valley State is 0-2, scoring 5 and allowing 48 points per game (-43 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lincoln (PA) by 30 and Mississippi Valley State by 16 about 80% of the time.
Result: Lincoln (PA) 20, Mississippi Valley State 31. Mississippi Valley State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 18 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lincoln (PA) 29.5, Mississippi Valley State 22.5 | Lincoln (PA) 68%wrong winner | 18.0 | 1.0 |
| New formula | Lincoln (PA) 34.7, Mississippi Valley State 23.4 | Lincoln (PA) 75%wrong winner | 22.3 | 7.1 |
Final: Lincoln (PA) 20, Mississippi Valley State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lincoln (PA) vs Mississippi Valley State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lincoln (PA) | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.0 | 18.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 55.0 | 38.7 |
| Yards per play | 4.43 | 4.73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.48 | 6.46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.0 | 94.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.0 | 214.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 237.0 | 195.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 481.0 | 238.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00 | 1.70 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 7.00 | 2.20 |
| Stat | Lincoln (PA) | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.21 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 33.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3% | 49.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.0% | 10.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 13.0% |
| Havoc rate | 10.6% | 11.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3% | 20.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.66 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 91.0 | 65.3 |
| Stat | Lincoln (PA) | Mississippi Valley State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.24 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 13.3% | 34.2% |
| Passing success rate | 21.7% | 32.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 26.5% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.4% | 25.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.6% | 38.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 28.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.6% | 43.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 49.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 57.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lincoln (PA) schedule · Mississippi Valley State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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