Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Delta State 26.6, Mississippi Valley State 24.6 at Rice-Totten Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Delta State wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 51.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Delta State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Mississippi Valley State is 1-2, scoring 13.7 and allowing 38.7 points per game (-25 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delta State by 25 and Mississippi Valley State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi Valley State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Delta State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Delta State 21, Mississippi Valley State 6. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13 points and the total by 24.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Delta State 26.6, Mississippi Valley State 24.6 | Delta State 55%right winner | 13.0 | 24.2 |
| New formula | Delta State 31.6, Mississippi Valley State 24.2 | Delta State 67%right winner | 7.6 | 28.9 |
Final: Delta State 21, Mississippi Valley State 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Delta State schedule · Mississippi Valley State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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