Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Duquesne 28.9, Rio Grande 27.4 at Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Duquesne wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 56.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Rio Grande has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Duquesne is 0-3, scoring 6.7 and allowing 50.7 points per game (-44 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rio Grande by 21 and Duquesne by 24 about 80% of the time.
Duquesne gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Rio Grande would be favoured by 0.6.
Result: Rio Grande 0, Duquesne 53. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 51.5 points and the total by 3.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Rio Grande 27.4, Duquesne 28.9 | Duquesne 54%right winner | 51.5 | 3.2 |
| New formula | Rio Grande 25.7, Duquesne 32.3 | Duquesne 65%right winner | 46.4 | 5.0 |
Final: Rio Grande 0, Duquesne 53. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Rio Grande schedule · Duquesne schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.