Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Alabama 37.1, Marshall 31.8 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: South Alabama wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 68.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
South Alabama is 4-2, scoring 38.8 and allowing 34.5 points per game (+4.3 per game). Marshall is 3-3, scoring 22 and allowing 33.7 points per game (-11.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: South Alabama's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.4 points against an average defense) against Marshall's struggling defense (126th). Marshall's below-average offense (97th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over South Alabama's struggling defense (130th); that mismatch is where most of Marshall's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Alabama by 28 and Marshall by 17 about 80% of the time.
Marshall gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: South Alabama 13, Marshall 20. Marshall won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Alabama / Marshall) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Alabama -1.5 | 66.5 | -125 / +105 |
| Opening line | South Alabama -2.5 | 60.5 | -137 / +114 |
| DraftKings | South Alabama -1.5 | 66.5 | -125 / +105 |
| FanDuel | South Alabama -2.5 | 65.5 | -130 / +108 |
| BetRivers | South Alabama -2 | 66.5 | -127 / +102 |
| BetMGM | South Alabama -1.5 | 66.5 | -120 / +100 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 24, 10:39 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Marshall win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Alabama -5.5 | 68.8 | 36% |
| Market consensus | South Alabama -1.5 | 66.5 | 46% |
| Blended projection | South Alabama -2 | 66.1 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Marshall win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 46% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model South Alabama -5.3 · market South Alabama -1.5 · difference -3.8 pts (Marshall view)
- Total
- model 68.8 · market 66.5 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward South Alabama than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Alabama 37.1, Marshall 31.8 | South Alabama 64%wrong winner | 12.3 | 35.8 |
| New formula | South Alabama 37.5, Marshall 32.9 | South Alabama 62%wrong winner | 11.6 | 37.4 |
Final: South Alabama 13, Marshall 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Alabama vs Marshall: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | South Alabama | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.8#15 | 22.0#109 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.5#131 | 33.7#129 |
| Yards per play | 6.31#56 | 6.10#65 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.68#137 | 7.09#135 |
| Rushing yards per game | 230.8#16 | 166.7#72 |
| Net passing yards per game | 212.8#84 | 250.5#46 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.5#99 | 199.7#121 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 272.8#132 | 266.0#130 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.17#7 | 1.33#124 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#34 | 0.67#106 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#95 | 0.83#134 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#23 | 1.83#75 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#40 | +0.12#54 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.32#138 | +0.14#118 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#66 | 44.0%#57 |
| Success rate allowed | 48.7%#134 | 44.6%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7%#75 | 13.0%#68 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6%#132 | 14.1%#114 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#68 | 11.0%#131 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7%#25 | 13.6%#77 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.38#50 | 3.48#114 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.87#132 | 3.98#88 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#15 | own 28#104 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#106 | own 30#97 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#25 | 68.3#43 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#76 | +0.15#30 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#12 | +0.09#76 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.31#138 | -0.03#39 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.33#132 | +0.31#129 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.0%#76 | 46.2%#49 |
| Passing success rate | 44.7%#48 | 42.3%#73 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#17 | 17.9%#85 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.8%#47 | 31.7%#69 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.1%#128 | 31.1%#90 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.7%#42 | 41.6%#73 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.1%#114 | 42.5%#103 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.7%#68 | 51.5%#115 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.6%#133 | 59.4%#71 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Alabama schedule · Marshall schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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