Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Carolina 35.5, Campbell 32 at Barker-Lane Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Western Carolina wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 67.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Western Carolina is 1-0, scoring 45 and allowing 21 points per game (+24 per game). Campbell is 1-0, scoring 49 and allowing 37 points per game (+12 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Carolina by 26 and Campbell by 19 about 80% of the time.
Campbell gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Carolina is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Western Carolina 19, Campbell 28. Campbell won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Carolina 35.5, Campbell 32.0 | Western Carolina 59%wrong winner | 12.5 | 20.4 |
| New formula | Western Carolina 35.7, Campbell 33.8 | Western Carolina 55%wrong winner | 11.0 | 22.5 |
Final: Western Carolina 19, Campbell 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Carolina vs Campbell: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Carolina | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.6 | 24.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.5 | 35.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.40 | 5.29 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.50 | 6.47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.8 | 148.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.0 | 211.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 207.6 | 138.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.2 | 272.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.09 | 0.92 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.55 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.91 | 1.92 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.27 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Western Carolina | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.12 |
| Success rate | 45.1% | 40.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8% | 43.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8% | 9.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 14.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 9.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 12.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.57 | 3.54 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.1 | 68.0 |
| Stat | Western Carolina | Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.19 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 43.1% |
| Passing success rate | 47.9% | 41.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 21.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2% | 29.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.8% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.9% | 39.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.0% | 43.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 59.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.9% | 73.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Carolina schedule · Campbell schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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