2026 schedule
Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes
2026 season so far
Arkansas Baptist is unbeaten in the books against the 142nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 3.5 and allowing 75.5 points per game (-72 per game).
Arkansas Baptist plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Arkansas Baptist has no more games on the 2026 regular-season schedule.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
2 games- at
Houston Christian Huskies
2-1 · SOS #105
Loss 0-88
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Houston Christian by 3.8
Total 48.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Houston Christian by 88. 88 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Husky Stadium (TX)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Alcorn State Braves
4-3 · SOS #164
Loss 7-63
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Alcorn State by 33.3
Total 73.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Alcorn State by 56. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHEZ)Spinks-Casem StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-60.1
Adj. offense
0.3
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
60.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 3.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 75.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 2.59 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 8.34 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 112.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 53.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 309.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 182.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.50 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 0.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 4.50 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.06 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.17 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 37.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 48.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.6% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.03 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.11 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.21 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.14 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 34.3% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 28.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 24.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 28.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 25.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 58.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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