Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alcorn State 53.5, Arkansas Baptist 20.2 at Spinks-Casem Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Alcorn State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.3 points and 73.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Arkansas Baptist is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 88 points per game (-88 per game). Alcorn State is 3-3, scoring 39 and allowing 41.3 points per game (-2.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alcorn State by 11 and Alcorn State by 56 about 80% of the time.
Alcorn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alcorn State by about 31.2.
Result: Arkansas Baptist 7, Alcorn State 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.7 points and the total by 3.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas Baptist 20.2, Alcorn State 53.5 | Alcorn State 99%right winner | 22.7 | 3.6 |
| New formula | Arkansas Baptist 19.9, Alcorn State 52.1 | Alcorn State 97%right winner | 23.9 | 2.0 |
Final: Arkansas Baptist 7, Alcorn State 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas Baptist vs Alcorn State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arkansas Baptist | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.0 | 24.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 69.0 | 23.2 |
| Yards per play | 2.02 | 5.63 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64 | 5.26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 51.0 | 183.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 56.0 | 171.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 419.0 | 139.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 49.0 | 202.2 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.00 | 0.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 3.00 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 1.55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| Stat | Arkansas Baptist | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 33.6% | 41.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.2% | 40.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 11.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 3.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.91 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 53.0 | 63.1 |
| Stat | Arkansas Baptist | Alcorn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 0.0% | 48.9% |
| Passing success rate | 5.6% | 40.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 20.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.1% | 28.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.9% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 0.0% | 38.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 72.7% | 35.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | — | 50.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 61.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas Baptist schedule · Alcorn State schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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