Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston Christian 26.3, Arkansas Baptist 22.5 at Husky Stadium (TX) in Week 2. That is a lean: Houston Christian wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 48.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Arkansas Baptist has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Houston Christian is 1-1, scoring 18.5 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-11 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas Baptist by 19 and Houston Christian by 26 about 80% of the time.
Houston Christian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Houston Christian by about 1.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Arkansas Baptist 0, Houston Christian 88. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 84.2 points and the total by 39.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Arkansas Baptist 22.5, Houston Christian 26.3 | Houston Christian 60%right winner | 84.2 | 39.2 |
| New formula | Arkansas Baptist 17.5, Houston Christian 41.1 | Houston Christian 92%right winner | 64.4 | 29.4 |
Final: Arkansas Baptist 0, Houston Christian 88. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Arkansas Baptist vs Houston Christian: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Arkansas Baptist | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.0 | 16.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 69.0 | 30.3 |
| Yards per play | 2.02 | 4.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64 | 5.45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 51.0 | 164.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 56.0 | 131.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 419.0 | 196.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 49.0 | 185.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 3.00 | 1.45 |
| Takeaways per game | 3.00 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00 | 0.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00 | 3.45 |
| Stat | Arkansas Baptist | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 33.6% | 34.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.2% | 43.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 8.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 10.3% |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 11.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 2.37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.86 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 53.0 | 67.4 |
| Stat | Arkansas Baptist | Houston Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.20 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 0.0% | 39.2% |
| Passing success rate | 5.6% | 29.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 18.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.1% | 24.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.9% | 30.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 0.0% | 31.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 72.7% | 34.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | — | 41.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 58.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas Baptist schedule · Houston Christian schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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