Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Tue, Oct 20, 2026
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 2.2 points (57% win probability), projected score SAS 115, OKC 113, total 227.2 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward SAS).
Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+8.8 points against an average opponent, about 59 projected wins in 2026-27); San Antonio Spurs rank 1 (+8.8, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.0 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.2-point margin above. A 57% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (SAS margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.4 (SAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.2 (SAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.2 (SAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (SAS margin)
Rest and travel
OKC: well rested. SAS: well rested.
Projected minutes
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Chet Holmgren 26, Ajay Mitchell 24, Cason Wallace 24, Alex Caruso 23, Jared McCain 21, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jalen Williams 19, Jaylin Williams 17.
SAS: Victor Wembanyama 31, Devin Vassell 30, De'Aaron Fox 29, Stephon Castle 26, Tobias Harris 26, Julian Champagnie 26, Dylan Harper 24, Keldon Johnson 14, Luke Kornet 7.
Four factors
| OKC (2025-26) | SAS (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116 | 116.6 |
| DRtg | 105.1 | 108.7 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 102.5 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 26.3% |
| FT rate | 0.261 | 0.273 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.2% |
San Antonio Spurs · Oklahoma City Thunder · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.