Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat
Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The model projects Miami Heat to win by 2.5 points (58% win probability), projected score MIA 121, MIN 118, total 238.5 (80% range 215–262). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward MIA).
Matchup
Minnesota Timberwolves rank 19 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−0.1 points against an average opponent, about 37 projected wins in 2026-27); Miami Heat rank 18 (+0.2, about 39 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.3 points to Miami Heat; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.5-point margin above. A 58% win probability means Miami Heat should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIA margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.1 (MIA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.5 (MIA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (MIA margin)
Rest and travel
MIN: well rested. MIA: well rested.
Projected minutes
MIN: Cody Williams 26, Anthony Edwards 25, Jaden McDaniels 24, LaMelo Ball 23, John Konchar 22, Ayo Dosunmu 21, Rudy Gobert 21, Trey Lyles 19, Jonathan Kuminga 18.
MIA: Bez Mbeng 28, Davion Mitchell 26, Andrew Wiggins 23, Bam Adebayo 23, Pelle Larsson 22, Giannis Antetokounmpo 21, Bobby Portis 19, Tim Hardaway Jr. 17, Nick Richards 16.
Four factors
| MIN (2025-26) | MIA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.8 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 110.5 | 111.6 |
| Pace | 103.2 | 106.1 |
| eFG% | 55.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 25.4% |
| FT rate | 0.285 | 0.268 |
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.0% |
Miami Heat · Minnesota Timberwolves · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.