Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 6.7 points (71% win probability), projected score OKC 118, DEN 112, total 229.7 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.7 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Denver Nuggets rank 9 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.6 points against an average opponent, about 47 projected wins in 2026-27); Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 (+8.8, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.2 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 6.7-point margin above. A 71% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (OKC margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.1 (OKC margin)
- Player on-court impact: +2.7 (OKC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (OKC margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (OKC margin)
Rest and travel
DEN: well rested. OKC: 1 day(s) of rest, 421 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
DEN: Jamal Murray 29, Nikola Jokic 28, Cameron Johnson 24, Christian Braun 23, Lonnie Walker IV 22, Aaron Gordon 21, DeMar DeRozan 19, Spencer Jones 18, Marvin Bagley III 14.
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Chet Holmgren 26, Ajay Mitchell 24, Cason Wallace 24, Alex Caruso 23, Jared McCain 21, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jalen Williams 19, Jaylin Williams 17.
Four factors
| DEN (2025-26) | OKC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 119.6 | 116 |
| DRtg | 114.5 | 105.1 |
| Pace | 100.8 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 57.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 22.3% |
| FT rate | 0.294 | 0.261 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.9% |
Oklahoma City Thunder · Denver Nuggets · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.