Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
Fri, Oct 30, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play
The model projects Miami Heat to win by 4.4 points (64% win probability), projected score MIA 123, IND 118, total 241.2 (80% range 218–265). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.5 points toward MIA).
Matchup
Indiana Pacers rank 23 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.3 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Miami Heat rank 18 (+0.2, about 39 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.5 points to Miami Heat; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.4-point margin above. A 64% win probability means Miami Heat should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIA margin)
- Player box-score production: +0.6 (MIA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.5 (MIA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (MIA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.6 (MIA margin)
Rest and travel
IND: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,026 miles of travel. MIA: 1 day(s) of rest, 606 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
IND: Kelly Oubre Jr. 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Pascal Siakam 21, Aaron Nesmith 21, Tyrese Haliburton 19, Jarace Walker 19, Kobe Brown 19, Ivica Zubac 18, Quenton Jackson 17.
MIA: Bez Mbeng 28, Davion Mitchell 26, Andrew Wiggins 23, Bam Adebayo 23, Pelle Larsson 22, Giannis Antetokounmpo 21, Bobby Portis 19, Tim Hardaway Jr. 17, Nick Richards 16.
Four factors
| IND (2025-26) | MIA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.3 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 116 | 111.6 |
| Pace | 103.4 | 106.1 |
| eFG% | 53.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 25.4% |
| FT rate | 0.252 | 0.268 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 54.0% |
Miami Heat · Indiana Pacers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.