Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
The model projects Detroit Pistons to win by 2.1 points (57% win probability), projected score MIA 115, DET 117, total 231.6 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.1 points toward DET).
Matchup
Detroit Pistons rank 8 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.9 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Miami Heat rank 18 (+0.2, about 39 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.7 points to Detroit Pistons; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.1-point margin above. A 57% win probability means Detroit Pistons should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIA margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.2 (MIA margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.1 (MIA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.3 (MIA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.3 (MIA margin)
Rest and travel
DET: 2 day(s) of rest, 1,156 miles of travel. MIA: 1 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
DET: Cade Cunningham 33, Elijah Harkless 25, Taurean Prince 24, Ausar Thompson 24, Jalen Duren 23, Daniss Jenkins 23, Duncan Robinson 23, John Collins 19, Kevin Huerter 10.
MIA: Bez Mbeng 28, Davion Mitchell 26, Andrew Wiggins 23, Bam Adebayo 23, Pelle Larsson 22, Giannis Antetokounmpo 21, Bobby Portis 19, Tim Hardaway Jr. 17, Nick Richards 16.
Four factors
| DET (2025-26) | MIA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 114.4 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 106.5 | 111.6 |
| Pace | 102.3 | 106.1 |
| eFG% | 54.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 25.4% |
| FT rate | 0.292 | 0.268 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.0% |
Miami Heat · Detroit Pistons · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.