Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
The model projects Charlotte Hornets to win by 2.2 points (57% win probability), projected score CHA 118, MIA 116, total 233.9 (80% range 210–257). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward CHA).
Matchup
Miami Heat rank 18 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.2 points against an average opponent, about 39 projected wins in 2026-27); Charlotte Hornets rank 15 (+0.9, about 41 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.7 points to Charlotte Hornets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.2-point margin above. A 57% win probability means Charlotte Hornets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CHA margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.7 (CHA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.1 (CHA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.3 (CHA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (CHA margin)
Rest and travel
MIA: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 654 miles of travel. CHA: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
MIA: Bez Mbeng 28, Davion Mitchell 26, Andrew Wiggins 23, Bam Adebayo 23, Pelle Larsson 22, Giannis Antetokounmpo 21, Bobby Portis 19, Tim Hardaway Jr. 17, Nick Richards 16.
CHA: Brandon Miller 26, Kon Knueppel 25, Naz Reid 24, Ryan Nembhard 22, Moussa Diabate 22, Royce O'Neale 19, Grayson Allen 17, Grant Williams 16, Coby White 16.
Four factors
| MIA (2025-26) | CHA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.8 | 115.7 |
| DRtg | 111.6 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 106.1 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 54.2% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 30.5% |
| FT rate | 0.268 | 0.244 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 54.0% |
Charlotte Hornets · Miami Heat · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.