LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 13.7 points (87% win probability), projected score OKC 119, LAC 106, total 224.9 (80% range 201–248). The largest driver is player box-score production (6.0 points toward OKC).
Matchup
LA Clippers rank 22 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−2.2 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 (+8.8, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 11.0 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 13.7-point margin above. A 87% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 9 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (OKC margin)
- Player box-score production: +6.0 (OKC margin)
- Player on-court impact: +4.4 (OKC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.6 (OKC margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +1.5 (OKC margin)
Rest and travel
LAC: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,180 miles of travel. OKC: 2 day(s) of rest.
Projected minutes
LAC: Rui Hachimura 31, Darius Garland 25, Brook Lopez 24, Brandon Ingram 23, Max Strus 22, Kris Dunn 21, Derrick Jones Jr. 20, Bradley Beal 18, Isaiah Jackson 14.
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Chet Holmgren 26, Ajay Mitchell 24, Cason Wallace 24, Alex Caruso 23, Jared McCain 21, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jalen Williams 19, Jaylin Williams 17.
Four factors
| LAC (2025-26) | OKC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 114.5 | 116 |
| DRtg | 113.3 | 105.1 |
| Pace | 98.9 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 55.9% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 22.3% |
| FT rate | 0.295 | 0.261 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 51.9% |
Oklahoma City Thunder · LA Clippers · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.