Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Miami Heat to win by 5.5 points (68% win probability), projected score MIA 123, DAL 117, total 240.2 (80% range 217–264). The largest driver is player box-score production (1.5 points toward MIA).
Matchup
Dallas Mavericks rank 24 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.1 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Miami Heat rank 18 (+0.2, about 39 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.3 points to Miami Heat; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.5-point margin above. A 68% win probability means Miami Heat should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (MIA margin)
- Player box-score production: +1.5 (MIA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.4 (MIA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.4 (MIA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (MIA margin)
Rest and travel
DAL: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 1,111 miles of travel. MIA: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 654 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
DAL: Kyrie Irving 25, P.J. Washington 24, Cooper Flagg 23, Naji Marshall 22, Santi Aldama 21, Max Christie 20, John Poulakidas 19, Moussa Cisse 18, Daniel Gafford 17.
MIA: Bez Mbeng 28, Davion Mitchell 26, Andrew Wiggins 23, Bam Adebayo 23, Pelle Larsson 22, Giannis Antetokounmpo 21, Bobby Portis 19, Tim Hardaway Jr. 17, Nick Richards 16.
Four factors
| DAL (2025-26) | MIA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 113.8 | 111.6 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 106.1 |
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 25.4% |
| FT rate | 0.287 | 0.268 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.0% |
Miami Heat · Dallas Mavericks · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.