Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder
Mon, Oct 26, 2026
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 8.0 points (75% win probability), projected score OKC 118, PHX 110, total 227.7 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.9 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Phoenix Suns rank 16 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.7 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 (+8.8, about 59 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 8.1 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 8.0-point margin above. A 75% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (OKC margin)
- Player box-score production: +3.5 (OKC margin)
- Player on-court impact: +3.9 (OKC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.7 (OKC margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.4 (OKC margin)
Rest and travel
PHX: 1 day(s) of rest, 840 miles of travel. OKC: second night of a back-to-back.
Projected minutes
PHX: Devin Booker 30, Jalen Green 27, Dillon Brooks 27, Miles Bridges 24, Luke Kennard 23, Oso Ighodaro 23, Collin Gillespie 21, Jordan Goodwin 17, Pat Spencer 15.
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Chet Holmgren 26, Ajay Mitchell 24, Cason Wallace 24, Alex Caruso 23, Jared McCain 21, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jalen Williams 19, Jaylin Williams 17.
Four factors
| PHX (2025-26) | OKC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.1 | 116 |
| DRtg | 110.6 | 105.1 |
| Pace | 100.1 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 53.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 22.3% |
| FT rate | 0.225 | 0.261 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.9% |
Oklahoma City Thunder · Phoenix Suns · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.