Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Atlanta Hawks to win by 2.3 points (58% win probability), projected score ATL 120, MIA 118, total 237.5 (80% range 214–261). The largest driver is home court (1.3 points toward ATL).
Matchup
Miami Heat rank 18 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+0.2 points against an average opponent, about 39 projected wins in 2026-27); Atlanta Hawks rank 17 (+0.6, about 40 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 0.4 points to Atlanta Hawks; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.3-point margin above. A 58% win probability means Atlanta Hawks should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (ATL margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.1 (ATL margin)
- Player on-court impact: +0.5 (ATL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (ATL margin)
Rest and travel
MIA: 1 day(s) of rest, 606 miles of travel. ATL: 1 day(s) of rest, 701 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
MIA: Bez Mbeng 28, Davion Mitchell 26, Andrew Wiggins 23, Bam Adebayo 23, Pelle Larsson 22, Giannis Antetokounmpo 21, Bobby Portis 19, Tim Hardaway Jr. 17, Nick Richards 16.
ATL: Jalen Johnson 28, Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28, Onyeka Okongwu 26, CJ McCollum 25, Dyson Daniels 22, Jalen Wilson 20, Keshon Gilbert 18, Jock Landale 17, Luguentz Dort 16.
Four factors
| MIA (2025-26) | ATL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 113.8 | 113.3 |
| DRtg | 111.6 | 110.9 |
| Pace | 106.1 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 54.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 24.4% |
| FT rate | 0.268 | 0.234 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 54.6% |
Atlanta Hawks · Miami Heat · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.