Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 9.9 points (79% win probability), projected score DAL 110, OKC 120, total 230.6 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is player on-court impact (5.7 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+8.8 points against an average opponent, about 59 projected wins in 2026-27); Dallas Mavericks rank 24 (−3.1, about 30 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 11.9 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 9.9-point margin above. A 79% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (DAL margin)
- Player box-score production: −5.1 (DAL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −5.7 (DAL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.0 (DAL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.8 (DAL margin)
Rest and travel
OKC: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 189 miles of travel. DAL: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,111 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Chet Holmgren 26, Ajay Mitchell 24, Cason Wallace 24, Alex Caruso 23, Jared McCain 21, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jalen Williams 19, Jaylin Williams 17.
DAL: Kyrie Irving 25, P.J. Washington 24, Cooper Flagg 23, Naji Marshall 22, Santi Aldama 21, Max Christie 20, John Poulakidas 19, Moussa Cisse 18, Daniel Gafford 17.
Four factors
| OKC (2025-26) | DAL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116 | 108.6 |
| DRtg | 105.1 | 113.8 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 23.2% |
| FT rate | 0.261 | 0.287 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.6% |
Dallas Mavericks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.