Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
Sat, Oct 31, 2026
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 4.6 points (65% win probability), projected score HOU 109, OKC 114, total 222.8 (80% range 199–246). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.1 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+8.8 points against an average opponent, about 59 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 6 (+4.2, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.6 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.6-point margin above. A 65% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (HOU margin)
- Player box-score production: −2.1 (HOU margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.0 (HOU margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.5 (HOU margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.3 (HOU margin)
Rest and travel
OKC: 2 day(s) of rest, 227 miles of travel. HOU: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 227 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Chet Holmgren 26, Ajay Mitchell 24, Cason Wallace 24, Alex Caruso 23, Jared McCain 21, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jalen Williams 19, Jaylin Williams 17.
HOU: Amen Thompson 29, Jabari Smith Jr. 27, Fred VanVleet 26, Kevin Durant 25, Alperen Sengun 25, Marcus Smart 23, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Steven Adams 17.
Four factors
| OKC (2025-26) | HOU (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116 | 115.1 |
| DRtg | 105.1 | 109.9 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 99 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 34.8% |
| FT rate | 0.261 | 0.260 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.0% |
Houston Rockets · Oklahoma City Thunder · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.