Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 1.8 points (56% win probability), projected score CLE 113, OKC 115, total 227.6 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.7 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+8.8 points against an average opponent, about 59 projected wins in 2026-27); Cleveland Cavaliers rank 5 (+5.1, about 50 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.7 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.8-point margin above. A 56% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +1.3 (CLE margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.5 (CLE margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.7 (CLE margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.5 (CLE margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.6 (CLE margin)
Rest and travel
OKC: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,115 miles of travel. CLE: 1 day(s) of rest, 336 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Chet Holmgren 26, Ajay Mitchell 24, Cason Wallace 24, Alex Caruso 23, Jared McCain 21, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jalen Williams 19, Jaylin Williams 17.
CLE: James Harden 34, Donovan Mitchell 34, Evan Mobley 34, Jarrett Allen 28, Peyton Watson 22, Sam Merrill 20, Mario Hezonja 13, Tristan Enaruna 11, Jaylon Tyson 10.
Four factors
| OKC (2025-26) | CLE (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116 | 116.1 |
| DRtg | 105.1 | 112.1 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 102.6 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 26.9% |
| FT rate | 0.261 | 0.265 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.3% |
Cleveland Cavaliers · Oklahoma City Thunder · Track record
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.