Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas State 31, Arizona State 27.3 at Mountain America Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Kansas State wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 58.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Kansas State is 4-2, scoring 35.5 and allowing 20 points per game (+15.5 per game). Arizona State is 3-3, scoring 31.3 and allowing 32 points per game (-0.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) against Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th). Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) meets Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arizona State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas State by 26 and Arizona State by 19 about 80% of the time.
Arizona State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Kansas State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Kansas State 17, Arizona State 28. Arizona State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 14.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kansas State / Arizona State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas State -1.5 | 51.5 | -118 / -103 |
| Opening line | Kansas State -2.5 | 54.5 | -130 / +108 |
| DraftKings | Kansas State -1.5 | 51.5 | -118 / -102 |
| FanDuel | Kansas State -1.5 | 51.5 | -111 / -108 |
| BetRivers | Arizona State -2 | 52.5 | +100 / -122 |
| BetMGM | Kansas State -1.5 | 51.5 | -118 / -102 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas State -3.5 | 58.3 | 40% |
| Market consensus | Kansas State -1.5 | 51.5 | 49% |
| Blended projection | Kansas State -2 | 52.6 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona State win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 49% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Kansas State -3.7 · market Kansas State -1.5 · difference -2.2 pts (Arizona State view)
- Total
- model 58.3 · market 51.5 · difference +6.8
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Kansas State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kansas State 31.0, Arizona State 27.3 | Kansas State 60%wrong winner | 14.7 | 13.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Kansas State 17, Arizona State 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kansas State vs Arizona State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Kansas State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.4#53 | 25.8#81 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7#79 | 24.5#66 |
| Yards per play | 6.14#45 | 5.86#71 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.52#48 | 5.20#26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.8#52 | 198.4#28 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.6#95 | 217.2#81 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 182.8#95 | 141.6#34 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.1#63 | 219.7#71 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#45 | 0.85#35 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.58#13 | 0.92#85 |
| Sacks per game | 2.42#31 | 2.62#21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.08#12 | 2.08#89 |
| Stat | Kansas State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#51 | +0.06#50 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#68 | -0.03#43 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#97 | 40.6%#98 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4%#41 | 40.3%#52 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#46 | 13.2%#47 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6%#77 | 9.4%#12 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#62 | 14.0%#26 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#107 | 12.5%#85 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.29#35 | 3.81#87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.79#61 | 3.58#41 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#50 | own 28#116 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#82 | own 33#133 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.4#117 | 70.9#20 |
| Stat | Kansas State | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#35 | +0.08#39 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#73 | +0.03#68 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#97 | -0.01#62 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#50 | -0.06#40 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.5%#99 | 42.6%#78 |
| Passing success rate | 40.6%#76 | 38.6%#99 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.7%#128 | 19.2%#91 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.2%#74 | 27.8%#93 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#51 | 28.2%#47 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.2%#97 | 34.8%#119 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.3%#64 | 37.4%#41 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.6%#30 | 53.3%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.4%#77 | 55.8%#42 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kansas State schedule · Arizona State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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